Inspired by Elonka and Rattle, I'll offer my feelings on this evening. I've had several friends comment that they felt trepidation on the eve of this election... That excitement you once felt as you watched the polls close and the results pour in has been replaced with a sinking feeling in your stomach. My friends blame 2000. They say they're worried about whether this election will be resolved simply and legitimately. I think it goes deeper then that. We are a deeply divided nation. Whatever the results of this election, they will be terribly bad for a large number of people who live here. Zogby says that most people won't accept the legitimacy of their opponent's government if their side looses. That worry isn't just about the outcome. Its about what happens afterward. If Kerry wins the Reds will howl. They'll scream and kick. They'll hate him. More then they hated Clinton. More then the leftists hate Bush. They'll hate him absolutely and they will rail against every decision that he makes. They'll also hate the crazy "do whatever" liberals who put him in office. You'll have about a third of the country acting toward the President with about the level of rational objectivity shown by those who think Bush knew about 9/11 and attacked Afghanistan to build an oil pipeline. A third of the country will act like the "Swift Boat Veterans" all the time. But they'll have the Congress, and they'll get what they want most of the time, and that may temper them. If Bush wins cleanly the Blues will be forced to stop pretending that his Presidency is illegitimate. They'll be completely marginalized, loosing control of the Presidency, both houses of Congress, and the Supreme Court. The Democrats with have absolutely no power in the federal government. They will loose much of their middle ground interests and the Reds will be able to successfully pursue some of their more radical interests. Ultimately, the Blues will have to come to terms with the fact that their problem is not with one man nor one election, but with a majority of the American electoral power if not the majority of the American people. How will they react? Will they attack the electoral college? Will they attack the Senate? The distribution of seats in the House? Will the cities see brain drain as their elite split for warmer pastures in more liberal countries? How will the Blues reformulate their strategy when faced not with a single person to focus their energies on, but with an entire nation? If Bush wins cleanly the Democrats will find themselves in a very, very deep strategic hole which will probably take years and years to dig out of. If Bush wins controversially, the Blues will find themselves just as marginalized, and yet still not fully comprehending why, and even more furious about their position, thinking it unfair and illegal. The result will be explosive protest. None of these scenarios is comforting... The political future of this country promises to continue to be very intense. You are about to be punched in the stomach. That sinking feeling is your heart wondering which direction the swing is going to come from. |