] "Well," he sighed, "no one's going to take this idea
] seriously, but here's what I would do. I would free
] Saddam and tell him to go form a new government.'
]
] That got my attention. "You'd do what?" Everything he'd
] said up to that point had seemed sensible. if grim.
]
] "Look," he said, "Saddam's been the only bastard mean
] enough to govern Iraq for any length of time. I'd hold
] him to a few conditions - no WMD's, no rewards to the
] families of suicide bombers, right of first refusal on
] Iraqi oil - then I'd tell him to go back to doing what he
] knows how to do. I mean, if you want a stable Iraq, he's
] a lot more likely to produce one than we are."

I'll underline Barlow's proposal (which is not the above lead in text) because it relates to something Stratfor has advised: Figure out how to minimize exposure to problems in Iraq without conceeding anything. I.E. Liberal democracy is impossible because a democratic election would bring Mullahs to power. The place is going to become an extension of Iran, which is a serious problem for us in the long run, but our short term goal is dealing with Al'Q, and in that respect our purpose is merely to show strength, and for that much the job is done, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are ever so slowly moving to address the issues.

I'm not sure if I agree that a "free and democratic" Kurdistan would be a symbol for the region anymore then a "free and democratic" Israel is. The Islamic world is not going to identify with the Kurds. Then again, if Iraq is going to make such a shining example then why wouldn't Afghanistan?

For that matter, it ought to be underlined that as bad as Saddam was, he was contained, and a contained Saddam is very likely to be better then anything else that we get out of that place regardless of how expedient it was to attack him.

Was it really impossible to convince the Saudis and Pakistan to move without creating this mess in Iraq? This seems amazingly unlikley to me, particularly given the relationship between the Bush administration and the Saudis. You'd think we could have negotiated it without firing a shot. You'd think they would have known Bush well enough not to think he was bluffing.

Is there any serious commentator out there who thinks everything is going to work out fine in Iraq?

Kerry has signed up for a hell of a job, inheritting this nightmare, the soft economy, the coming baby boomer entitlement and savings crunch, the serious economic competition coming out of Asia, and the disaster that our healthcare system has become. No one knows how to solve these problems, and the solutions that are bandied about amount to political pandering. Its going to be a long, cold winter and my generation will be passing on by the time it thaws.

BarlowFriendz: Exit Strategies