] The most dramatic polls were those published immediately
] after the Republican convention. Among likely voters, a
] poll by Gallup for CNN and USA Today found Mr Bush seven
] points ahead; Time put the lead at 11 points; a Newsweek
] poll gives the same lead among registered voters. No
] challenger has overcome a deficit that size after Labour
] Day and come back to win.

Bush's lead is not a temporary "post convention bounce."

Economist.com | Bush is winning