The United States is experiencing its greatest military crisis in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad. Fundamental strategic assumptions made by US planners are being rendered false.

A careful distinction must be drawn -- and is not being drawn by the media -- between sympathizers and guerillas.

The question is simple: Does al-Sadr's rising represent a fundamental shift in the Shiite community?

As former Iranian President Rafsanjani bluntly put it: "They are stuck in the mud in Iraq, and they know that if Iran wanted to, it could make their problems even worse."

Al-Sadr was the perfect instrument. He was dangerous, deniable, and manageable.