] One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a
] global recession this year, prompted in large part by
] fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
] (SARS), the "mystery illness" with cold-like symptoms
] that is blamed for 78 deaths in 15 countries, CNNfn has
] learned.
]
] Morgan Stanley's chief economist in the United States,
] Stephen Roach, will formally advise clients Friday that
] he's forecasting a world recession in 2003. His previous
] forecast was for an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.

A long, tough war causes moderate Islamists to join radicals, Russians to renew their distrust of the west (anyone else notice they are moving their navy into the Arabic Sea?), increasingly common terrorist incidents, instablility in the UN and NATO systems... Throw in a plauge... Decreased travel, deaths...

Uncertainty.

Prolonged uncertainty keeps money in shoe boxes.

No new investment means no new jobs, which cuts consumer spending. Uncertainty becomes self fulfilling... Weakness... Depression... Poverty...

Economist predicts recession, partly linked to SARS - Apr. 2, 2003