Courtesy of the so-called benchmark revision of the national income and product accounts, the recent performance of the U.S. economy has been cast in a very different light. The direction of this annual revision was hardly a shocker. The incoming monthly flow data had tipped us off to expect a weaker picture than the previous data had painted. But there is more to this revision than statistical noise. In my opinion, the new data now place the U.S. economy right on the brink of another recessionary relapse -- the dreaded double dip. Double dips happen because demand relapses invariably occur at just the time when businesses are lifting production in order to rebuild inventories. With the current production upswing well advanced -- industrial production has risen for six consecutive months -- a demand relapse would come at a most inopportune time. Yet with the U.S. economy now back to its stall speed, that's precisely the risk. Courtesy of the government's newly revised depiction of the U.S. economy, the odds of a double dip have risen, in my view. I would now place a 60 percent to 65 percent chance on such a possibility in the second half of this year. Double dip alert | 
