Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives dug up an interesting data point. He looked for similar historical periods when the CAPE ratio was above 20 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yielded in the ultra low 2% range.
Essentially we are in unchartered territory, according to Short’s research.
“The closest we ever came to this in U.S. history was a seven-month period from October 1936 to April 1937,” Short wrote. “During that timeframe the 10-year yield averaged 2.67%, about 65 basis points above where we are now.”
How did the market fare? The S&P 500 had a big selloff during 1937 and into 1938, Short said.
