BLODGET: And what about price-to-income and price-to-rent?
SHILLER: Those things have come down a lot. I don't know exactly where the middle is but it's not like we're overpriced anymore. Now the question is whether we'll overshoot...
SHILLER: I think historically, if you look at it, interest rates don't seem to matter very much in determining home prices. In terms of forecasting, which you're asking me to do, to forecast the change, the big thing in forecasting home prices is momentum. It's different than the stock market. So if it's been going up it will continue going up and if it's been going down it will continue going down. By that model, which is the most successful forecasting model for home prices, prices will keep going down.
