It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management. What are the causes and consequences of this lack of agreement? Since 1 part in 100,000 would imply that one could put a Shuttle up each day for 300 years expecting to lose only one, we could properly ask "What is the cause of management's fantastic faith in the machinery?"

Linked from Dagmar's 6 dumbest ideas in computer security.

Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, by R.P. Feynman

NASA officials said yesterday that Hurricane Katrina had thrown more uncertainty into the space shuttle program by damaging two major Gulf Coast facilities and leaving many of its workers homeless.

*sigh*

Storm's Punch Has Knocked Shuttle Timetable 'Off Kilter'

First, both NASA and DoD will utilize the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle for national security, civil, and science missions in the 5-20 metric ton class to the maximum extent possible. Where practical, this will include cargo missions to the Space Station. However, and as specified by policy, new commercially-developed launch capabilities may compete for these missions, in accordance with our intended approach to Space Station re-supply.

Second, NASA will initiate development of a Crew Launch Vehicle, derived from Space Shuttle solid rocket boosters with a new upper stage, for human spaceflight missions. Consistent with my belief that we can't afford to have a four-year gap in our nation's human spaceflight capability, we will bring this vehicle online in the 2011-12 time frame.

Third, NASA will develop a new 125 metric ton class launch vehicle for future missions to the Moon and Mars, derived from existing Shuttle external tank and solid rocket booster capabilities.

Its official...

An Advance Look at NASA Administrator Mike Griffin's AIAA Speech

NASA has decided to develop a 100t to low-Earth orbit (LEO) in-line heavylift booster using a highly modified external tank and new five segment solid-rocket boosters (SRB), Christopher Shank, special assistant to NASA administrator Michael Griffin, has revealed to Flight International.

These are the same ones that were in the spaceref and nytimes stories a month or so ago. They were supposed to make some kind of public announcement the week of 8/15/2005 but I never saw it.

Now we'll see if Congress is willing to foot the bill to put these up.

NASA picks rocket for return to Moon

We now have 7 teams that have climber hardware and are intending to show up for the 2005 competition. The competition date has been pushed back 3 weeks - we will start accepting hardware on the original Sept 30th date, but will spend 3 weeks debugging both our infrastructure and the team's hardware - this is the first time this hardware is being brought together, and we expect integration to require some extra time and attention.

This is the X-prize for space elevator technology; I think
they want to have a workable climber by 2010.

Space Elevator Update

NASA may push back plans to launch its next shuttle mission until March 2006, allowing engineers more time to solve an ongoing foam shedding problem with orbiter external tanks.

What a mess. The formal report of the "60 day study" is due out this week. The new launchers being kicked around are so much simpler than STS that I could almost imagine it flying by 2010 if they could start working on it now.

I think that the possibility is growing that the next flight may be the last.

NASA May Push Next Shuttle Flight to March 2006

Amateur astronomers have observed satellites and other space craft since the dawn of the Space Age. Video Astronomy is a rapidly growing segment of the amateur astronomy community and is yielding impressive results. Indeed, dedicated amateurs have even succeeded in obtaining high power telescopic images of the ISS and its predecessors with excellent resolution using home camera/video equipment and software.

When the Space Shuttle Columbia reentered the Earth's atmosphere during the STS-107 mission, amateurs astronomers were on hand to record its troubled flight. Photometric analyses of the better videos of the reentry were able to establish the timing of early spacecraft failure and provide data allowing for the calculation of sizes of some of the early debris pieces prior to the Columbia’s final breakup. This information helped to understand and confirm the early events leading to breakup. The STS-107 work is documented in the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, volume 3, part 2, section 6.

Apparently, amateur video of Columbia breaking up was invaluable in the post mortem analysis. Here are some tips that they gave for shooting future reentries.

I'd also recommend looking at the section of the CAIB report linked
from here. The level of imaging science here is pretty amazing.

NASA - Space Shuttle Re-entry Video Procedures for Space Enthusiasts

A go-ahead was given last week by the U.S. Department of State’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC) that clears the way for exchanges of technical information between Scaled Composites of Mojave, California and Virgin Galactic of the United Kingdom to build passenger-carrying suborbital spaceliners.

U.S. Okays Virgin Galactic Spaceship Plans

In a recent paper [1] and letter [2], Rusty Schweickart made some recommendations on dealing with the threat of a possible impact in 2036, and he called on further analysis to be done. This is my input to that analysis. Comments are welcome.

The most important thing that I propose is that deflection by the impact of a spacecraft is practical in this case. Such a mission could be done fairly quickly at a reasonable cost.

The asteroid under discussion, with the provisional designation 2004 MN4, has now been assigned the number 99942 and the name Apophis. (Apophis was the Greek name of the Egyptian god Apep, "the destroyer.") Therefore, I use this name below.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT ASTEROID APOPHIS (2004 MN4)?

Steven Robinson, the astronaut who will attempt to pluck two thin pieces of dangling cloth from the underside of the shuttle Discovery Wednesday morning, said today that the risks of the operation are manageable and the tools are well understood.

There was a great quote in one of the Times articles the other day: "there's nothing about that system that you can't make worse by trying."

Astronauts Cautious and Confident About Shuttle Repair Plan