Jello wrote:

Russian democracy ended completely several years ago. Is there any doubt that Putin is El Presidente for life, and that the FSB will continue to take over more and more of the economy? The path has been clear for many years, and he has never strayed from it.

i am not sure u could say when Russian democracy ceased to exist or even whether it has as yet completely disappeared. It is like watching freedom slowly wither away -- the boiling frog -- i just have this image of a giant amoeba (like in the Blob) or a slime mould devouring the country in my head.
When Putin announces that he's changing the law so he's not obliged to step down, as he does at the moment, it will be interesting to see if more than a few people risk protesting. I know what I suspect will happen but I don't own a crystal ball. I remember in June 1989 sitting a politics exam and writing about the nationalist movements in Eastern Europe as an interesting political force but even a few months before the Berlin Wall came down I didn't seriously expect it to happen.
If people decide to protest on mass then the big question is will the army start shooting. My guess would be that if the people do stand up then the army won't shoot but i'm not gambling my life so it's easy to say comfortably from here.

RE: Masha Lipman - Russia's Hidden Power Struggle - washingtonpost.com