Decius wrote:
] ] He changed the computer industry. Now he's after the
] ] music business
]
] A mixed bag of clue and deception.

deception is a bit harsh, no? you may think he's wrong about certain things, but he's not decieving anyone.

] He is dead wrong about subscription based services. Cable
] companies, Netflix, XM...

well, those are all nice, but people are dying to ditch that model in many cases
- in cable tv, where you pay, or feel like you're paying, for 400 channels you never watch. comcast is already preparing to launch OnDemand, coupled with a DVR that's less a DVR and more of a temporary cache for your pay per view content.
- XM has yet to turn a profit, even after GM installed it in every single one of their medium to high end vehicles. we'll keep watching. also, i'm not sure radio is comparable. when i listen to what is, essentially, a radio service, i have no expectation of keeping the music, so it's not as galling that i can't. perhaps you argue that broadband (both hardwire and wireless) will make all music essentially like radio?
- NetFlix is a decent one, and one to watch also. I think, on average, people are less interested in building libraries of movies than libraries of music. That may be changing with our generation, if only because the cost has dropped so dramatically.

i also think you overestimate the average person's desire to branch out and try different music. really, they want to be seen with their digital music player, rocking to the new Brittney track. previously they had to buy the whole CD to listen to that song on their discman, then they could steal the one popular track from napster, and now they can buy it and put it on their shiny new ipod or Rio.

i'm very interested to see how it pans out. For myself, i'm utterly uninterested in having my music tied to the existence of a company, or to my having a broadband connection wherever i happen to be.

] that he makes the argument about the need for investment, and
] then he undoes the argument by saying that the core problem
] with the music industry is that it invests too much!

well, i think he was discussing two kinds of investment. the investment an artist puts into their own success and the investment a record company or distributor puts into the success of an artist.

I see it changing like this -- the artist needs to invest more, because they're not signing with a label, so no one's gonna pay for their studio time, or they'll sign with an indie, and go to a cheaper studio with less bling... they're gonna need to spend more time and effort on self promotion, though one would imagine there are technological ways we could help that process. The label invests less, somewhat, because they don't have to pay for artwork or physical media.
The only thing missing from the online music services is the promotion aspect, period. Distribution is a snap, and device support expands daily. As i've said before, i think more artists will see less benefit to signing with a major label, and will invest in making the record themselves, in a local studio or in their closet... i've heard dozens of records in this class that sound better than shit from Geffen. The only thing missing is promotion. So what's the answer? I think it's going to evolve into a networked community, like this one, with trust relations and reccomendations, in which the music fans will self promote. I think that if the technology is designed to support it easily (and transparently where possible) this will end up making far more musicians financially stable.

] He is wrong about VOD. Does my TIVO give me instant
] gratification? Why should I wait 24 hours for the next
] Simpsons episode when I can download it in 5?

i agree, to a point. you have a T1 in your house... most people still have a 56k modem. VOD is coming, eventually, but only once most people have decent broadband. as i said, comcast is already moving towards it, though it's gonna suck to start because the big tv studios won't be convinced of the viability. there'll be 9 shows available, and the same ppv movies you've always had.

also, you want to talk about a market for streaming on demand -- TV. Far fewer people care to keep archival copies of TV than of either movies or music. DVR's are nice primarily because i can time shift. If the cable company offers me whatever show i want, whenever i want it, then who needs to keep it around on a hard disc? there are some exceptions, of course, so a built in DVD burner perhaps? Buy streamed TV for ten cents a minute? twenty?

RE: Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview