People have been asking me when I think the economy is going to get better. The answer is 2020 on the outside, and 2015 if we're lucky. Please see the attached chart, from 2005.

Things are basically going to suck for a decade. A map of the future stock market is here. We're now entering the "trading range" section of that chart. Kind of a good time to make money in the market, actually, as you know its going to fluctuate. You will really be able to buy low and sell high and then buy low again and sell high again over the next ten years. Right now valuations are high. They'll be low again by March I think, but that is from the hip. These fluctuations are totally irrational so predicting the exact tops and bottoms will be really hard to do.

Most people will not be making money playing the market - they'll be struggling to make ends meet and adjust personal expectations in an environment where there just isn't enough money to go around.

We're about half way through a cyclical bear that would have been worse than the great depression if it wasn't for the housing bubble, which is why I think all the recent hand wringing about causes of the housing bubble is a bit strange.

It was obvious for years that there was a bubble, so articles wondering why economists didn't know or didn't do something, etc are silly. Economists did know. The bubble was created intentionally. If it wasn't for the bubble, it would have felt like a depression. Because it was a depression. It is a depression. And its going to be a depression for another decade.

In the past century, every Bull Market has been followed by a significant refractory period. From the looks of the time-lengths of red, it appears almost generational in nature. The damage is repaired when a new crop of investors — without crash scars – finally appears.

Maybe our soft landing will make us less cautious, which is probably a good thing for our prospects, but basically, get used to the current environment because by the time it gets better you won't care anymore.