Elonka wrote:
] Rattle wrote:
] ] Does Saddam move first?
] ]
] ] I'm going with yes, with a spread of 12 hours.. That is, at
] ] least 12 hours before whatever deadline is set gets
] reached..
]
] My guess is no... In fact, I'm surprised that his troops
] haven't fired on us over the last few months. Over the last
] decade, there'd been a kind of constant low-grade conflict, as
] U.S. or British planes would take out targets in the No-Fly
] Zone, and Iraqis would shoot back, but over the last couple
] months, things have been surprisingly quiet from the Iraqi
] side. My guess is that Saddam knew that if his troops *did*
] fire first, that it would give us the (relatively) moral high
] ground to move in and say that we were just "advancing in self
] defense".

Personally, I think that we'll have Baghdad surrounded inside of a week. Then things get very complicated and very messy. Urban combat is still very difficult. There's also been rumours of a vast underground subway system in Baghdad that's never been used by the public. So who knows. But I doubt that we'll have much trouble controlling the country as a whole. The whole plan is to isolate Hussein from command and control and basically surround him. Something we should've done 12 years ago.

] The thing that I'm most curious about, is whether there will
] be some other move by a higher-up in the Iraqi military.
] After all, if they're genuinely worried about an attack by the
] U.S., the entire invasion could probably be stopped by one
] single bullet -- fired at Saddam.

A great point and one that would make everything a lot better. I don't think anyone can argue that this isn't the most desired solution. One has to wonder why it's not already happened.

RE: Place your bets..