Rattle wrote:

] Bush is going to go through with this one way or the other..
] I'm confident of that. I don't think anyone has any power to
] stop it at this point. The war machine is in motion. Lets
] just hope this dosen't start WW3 or put us in a worse position
] then we are right now. The administration wants to shrink the
] gap. Lets hope they are not being cocky, and that they can
] actually pull it off. All we can do is hope. Like it or not,
] we don't have control over this situation. All acts of
] protest have been completely ineffective, but thats another
] story...

I wouldn't worry about WW3. That's not likely. As we learned during the cold war, no one is stupid enough to risk total annihilation for any dogma. The Middle East has been unstable for, oh... 3000 years? Luckily it's pretty isolated geographically, so it would be difficult to migrate conflict out of the region. There are some countries who just don't give a shit (Japan).

Secondly, I think the protests have worked tremendously. They've stalled the whole thing. In fact, I think the reason why things are so tense at the White House isn't because we're getting ready to fight, it's because we were probably supposed to be fighting back in January. Consider:

o UN inspectors take longer than expected to find WMD. Iraq drags feet on opening certain sites.
o UN Security Council can't get their shit together. US doesn't expect France, Germany, and Russia to balk.
o Turkey tries to cash in. Forces plan B on deployment and tactics.
o Iraq starts playing shell games with diplomacy. Saddam wants debate. Saddam agrees to dismantle, then changes his mind. Saddam won't follow the ridiculously worded UN decree. Saddam says one thing, ambassadors say another.
o UN inspectors say that Iraq is 'trying' but still not sure about WMD.
o Congress starts balking. The tab looks like $100B. No one reaches for the check.

Meanwhile, the US economy, which was poised for a rebound, is stunted. Gas prices jumped the gun back in February. The bill to feed all those idle troops is starting to skyrocket. The UN Security Council is enjoying their day in the sun (you think France is loving the fact that they're making headlines on world affairs?). The weather is starting to get uncomfortable over there. Troops are getting bored and antsy. And the folks back home are questioning the reasoning behind all this crap.

What a MESS!

flynn23 wrote:
] Rattle wrote:
]
] ] Bush is going to go through with this one way or the other..
] ] I'm confident of that. I don't think anyone has any power to
] ] stop it at this point. The war machine is in motion. Lets
] ] just hope this dosen't start WW3 or put us in a worse position
] ] then we are right now. The administration wants to shrink the
] ] gap. Lets hope they are not being cocky, and that they can
] ] actually pull it off. All we can do is hope. Like it or not,
] ] we don't have control over this situation. All acts of
] ] protest have been completely ineffective, but thats another
] ] story...
]
] I think the protests have worked tremendously.
] They've stalled the whole thing. In fact, I think the reason
] why things are so tense at the White House isn't because we're
] getting ready to fight, it's because we were probably supposed
] to be fighting back in January. Consider:
]
] o UN inspectors take longer than expected to find WMD. Iraq
] drags feet on opening certain sites.
] o UN Security Council can't get their shit together. US
] doesn't expect France, Germany, and Russia to balk.
] o Turkey tries to cash in. Forces plan B on deployment and
] tactics.
] o Iraq starts playing shell games with diplomacy. Saddam wants
] debate. Saddam agrees to dismantle, then changes his mind.
] Saddam won't follow the ridiculously worded UN decree. Saddam
] says one thing, ambassadors say another.
] o UN inspectors say that Iraq is 'trying' but still not sure
] about WMD.
] o Congress starts balking. The tab looks like $100B. No one
] reaches for the check.

I agree that I think the protests definitely *have* had an effect in delaying things, otherwise the war would probably be over and done with by now. And it's one thing that concerns me greatly, is that the longer we delay, the more boobytraps that we're going to have to deal with when/if we go in.

As for the launching of chemical or biological attacks on our troops (or on Israel), I keep in mind that though the stockpiles are almost certainly there *somewhere*, they've got to be pretty well hidden since the U.N. inspectors haven't been able to find them yet. Whether they're buried near the "low tide" level of the Tigris River, or are stored in bunkers deep beneath the streets of Baghdad (or Saddam's birthplace town, which is where he's evidently been sending reinforcement troops recently), or wherever else they're stashed, it's going to take some time to access those stockpiles and properly weaponize them. In other words, they're not easily accessible in every battalion's ammunition stockpile, to load in to the missiles at a moment's notice.

Further, if there's an attempt to rapidly load chemical and/or biological substances into warheads, by troops who haven't been properly trained on how to handle such materials, accidents are going to happen. It's actually something that I've been wondering whether the U.N. inspectors have been checking... Have they been reviewing the Iraqi Army training manuals and procedures and instructors, to see if there was any reference to WMD-handling techniques? Who did the training in the past? How many troops were trained on that type of handling? Where are they now? Where was the training done? Where are the instructors now?

Another thing I wonder if the U.N. inspectors are checking, is the "accidental exposure" factor. How many cases of "run of the mill" anthrax occur in Iraq over the course of a year, from routine exposure to farm animals? And are there any areas in Iraq where the doctors are noting a higher than usual level of infection? That would definitely be a place to focus inspections, IMHO.

Elonka wrote:

] I agree that I think the protests definitely *have* had an
] effect in delaying things, otherwise the war would probably be
] over and done with by now. And it's one thing that concerns
] me greatly, is that the longer we delay, the more boobytraps
] that we're going to have to deal with when/if we go in.

there's not going to be a great danger of boobytraps affecting the troops, since I believe the plan is to use air power and coordinated artillery. There won't be much left to boobytrap. Infantry will only come into play when it's actually time to grab Hussein and mop up probably.

] As for the launching of chemical or biological attacks on our
] troops (or on Israel), I keep in mind that though the
] stockpiles are almost certainly there *somewhere*, they've got
] to be pretty well hidden since the U.N. inspectors haven't
] been able to find them yet. Whether they're buried near the
] "low tide" level of the Tigris River, or are stored in bunkers
] deep beneath the streets of Baghdad (or Saddam's birthplace
] town, which is where he's evidently been sending reinforcement
] troops recently), or wherever else they're stashed, it's going
] to take some time to access those stockpiles and properly
] weaponize them. In other words, they're not easily accessible
] in every battalion's ammunition stockpile, to load in to the
] missiles at a moment's notice.

good point. Frankly, I doubt that they'll even be able to get a shot off.

There has been mention that in Dessert Storm, the US forces said that if Hussein used chemical weapons, that the US would nuke his hometown. Schwartzkopf confirmed this recently. I'm sure there's been other communique to this effect.

] Further, if there's an attempt to rapidly load chemical and/or
] biological substances into warheads, by troops who haven't
] been properly trained on how to handle such materials,
] accidents are going to happen. It's actually something that
] I've been wondering whether the U.N. inspectors have been
] checking... Have they been reviewing the Iraqi Army training
] manuals and procedures and instructors, to see if there was
] any reference to WMD-handling techniques? Who did the
] training in the past? How many troops were trained on that
] type of handling? Where are they now? Where was the training
] done? Where are the instructors now?

another good point.

] Another thing I wonder if the U.N. inspectors are checking, is
] the "accidental exposure" factor. How many cases of "run of
] the mill" anthrax occur in Iraq over the course of a year,
] from routine exposure to farm animals? And are there any
] areas in Iraq where the doctors are noting a higher than usual
] level of infection? That would definitely be a place to focus
] inspections, IMHO.

Despite being very progressive, I doubt Iraq has the data, or at least certainly the accuracy in data, necessary to analyze this.