| |
Bear Market's Bite Could Go Deeper
by noteworthy at 7:42 pm EST, Mar 1, 2009 |
How much uglier can it get? Many market participants think capitulation -- when investors take their losses and get out of the market altogether -- must precede a major market recovery.
Why not Teach for America? One bear will teach another bear, and then that bear will do it.
To quote Rory Stewart out of context: They will soon be tempted to give up.
Peter Schiff: Tens of millions of people unemployed, inflation spiraling out of control, the government instituting price controls that result in shortages and blackouts and long lines for things. I think things are going to get very bad.
Nouriel Roubini: Let's pull out the bazooka and be done with it.
|
| |
RE: Bear Market's Bite Could Go Deeper
by Decius at 2:59 pm EST, Mar 2, 2009 |
noteworthy wrote: How much uglier can it get? Many market participants think capitulation -- when investors take their losses and get out of the market altogether -- must precede a major market recovery.
I'm sick of all this mushy bullshit about investor sentiment. Doesn't this huge banking and finance system that pays out multi-million dollar bonuses to people even when they loose money actually pay for technical analysts who have a quantitative understanding of how much things are worth and can explain a target range for equities prices that is related to actual economic data? After a fifty percent drop in the value of the economy its about damn time these poeple stopped holding their cards to their chests and came clean about what the situation is so that the rest of us can make informed decisions. I'm beginning to wonder whether there is nothing there - Is wall street really all just a bunch of bullshit - people making gut calls because they feel like there has been a capitulation and pretending to do a bunch of math so that it seems like they've got things under control? |
|
| | |
RE: Bear Market's Bite Could Go Deeper
by noteworthy at 7:07 pm EST, Mar 2, 2009 |
Decius wrote: Doesn't this huge banking and finance system that pays out multi-million dollar bonuses to people even when they lose money actually pay for technical analysts who have a quantitative understanding of how much things are worth and can explain a target range for equities prices that is related to actual economic data? After a fifty percent drop in the value of the economy its about damn time these people stopped holding their cards to their chests and came clean about what the situation is so that the rest of us can make informed decisions.
I don't mean to agitate, but it's interesting how the public demand for honesty and realism appears to be inversely proportional to the performance of the major indexes. In 2007, when the Dow first broke 12600, I doubt many people were saying: "after a fifty percent increase in the 'value' of the economy it's about damn time these people stopped blowing smoke and come clean about what the situation is so that the rest of us can make informed decisions." And the few people who asked such questions found themselves the laughingstock of Wall Street and Main Street alike. |
|
| | | |
RE: Bear Market's Bite Could Go Deeper
by Decius at 9:25 am EST, Mar 3, 2009 |
noteworthy wrote:
I don't mean to agitate, but it's interesting how the public demand for honesty and realism appears to be inversely proportional to the performance of the major indexes. In 2007, when the Dow first broke 12600, I doubt many people were saying: "after a fifty percent increase in the 'value' of the economy it's about damn time these people stopped blowing smoke and come clean about what the situation is so that the rest of us can make informed decisions." And the few people who asked such questions found themselves the laughingstock of Wall Street and Main Street alike.
Thats certainly true. Barry Ritholtz, who I started reading after DMV memed him a few times, called DOW 6800 in 2006, and was "the most bearish position of all 76 strategists in The BusinessWeek Market Survey." His view today on that call is "Prescient: The analysis as to what was structurally wrong in the economy, and what was likely to go eventually cause major problems. But the timing? Not so much." But when you've passed the most bearish estimate, what is left but the estimates being offered by the guys who are stockpiling guns? |
|
|
|
