Elonka wrote:

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits may have hit a 26-year high, but there are still lots of jobs open, because no matter how grim the economic forecast, at least some workers will change jobs voluntarily or retire. "Companies may not be making expansionary or discretionary hires," says Marc Cenedella, founder of TheLadders.com a subscription service that lists only jobs that pay $100,000 and up. "But even in a downturn, there's still 20% to 25% natural turnover per year." In the six-figure category, he estimates that will mean 3.2 million hires a year instead of 4 million in a normal market.

Interesting statistics to put the current layoffs in perspective.

A lot of people in the computer industry remember the hard times of the dot com/telecom crash. Right now the jobs situation is far, far worse than it was then, in general, but it seems to have had less impact on people directly around me. I've started to hear stories about folks that have been laid off, but I also know people who are hiring. The difference is that this time our industry isn't the epicenter of the crisis, so it should be easier for us this time.

Elonka wrote:

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits may have hit a 26-year high, but there are still lots of jobs open, because no matter how grim the economic forecast, at least some workers will change jobs voluntarily or retire. "Companies may not be making expansionary or discretionary hires," says Marc Cenedella, founder of TheLadders.com a subscription service that lists only jobs that pay $100,000 and up. "But even in a downturn, there's still 20% to 25% natural turnover per year." In the six-figure category, he estimates that will mean 3.2 million hires a year instead of 4 million in a normal market.

Interesting statistics to put the current layoffs in perspective.

Actually no, all this does is cloud the issue. What it says in a very quiet roundabout way is 800,000 jobs in the $100K category are toast, but makes it look like "well gee, if you did a better job prettying up your resume..."

From talking to the people I know around St. Louis who have been laid off, in manufacturing, there are zero replacement jobs. From my IT friends there were 50 applicants for 2 jobs at Citi. They also said when the position starts in March not to worry about the parking situation there (currently a very full lot), the building is going from full customer support, money managers, financial planners, etc, to JUST supporting the computer hub. Virtually everyone else is out.

Turnover is one thing and happens most places. Cenedella is expecting 20% of the openings of the past to not exist. That is the one number in there worth something. The current economy is a completely different ballgame from anything I will wager just about any of us have seen in our lifetimes. Thinking this article adds to the picture, without a LOT more data, is this kind of perspective.

For Decius's response, I am very worried that this downturn will be just as bad if not worse than the dot bomb in IT. The vast majority of IT work is done to support other people using computer resources to do whatever work they do, from finance to scheduling garbage collection routes. Without them, what do the companies need the IT guys for?

Mike the Usurper wrote:
For Decius's response, I am very worried that this downturn will be just as bad if not worse than the dot bomb in IT. The vast majority of IT work is done to support other people using computer resources to do whatever work they do, from finance to scheduling garbage collection routes. Without them, what do the companies need the IT guys for?

I didn't say that IT will be unaffected by the downturn. I said it would be easier for IT people than it was last time.

In the previous crisis you had a large number of technology focused businesses, be them web companies or telecoms, going out of business, which effected all of their employees and directly effected their suppliers. That means a massive contraction in technology jobs was at the epicenter of the crisis.

What you're talking about is just general economic contraction, not IT focused contraction. IT people will be less necessary in exactly the same proportion that janitors are less necessary and accountants are less necessary and project managers are less necessary.

This downturn will be hard for everybody, but it won't be harder on IT professionals than other kinds of professionals. Many technology companies are reducing staff in-order to reduce their costs so they can operate longer on less cash or fewer client orders, but they aren't going out of business.