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Cell Phone Use While Driving Fact Sheet
by Decius at 1:08 pm EST, Jan 12, 2009 |
The National Safety Council is all over the press calling for an immediate ban on the use of cellphones while driving. News media reports typically quote a representative of the NSC claiming that cellphones have been shown to be distracting. Thats not enough in my opinion. I frequently use my phone while driving as do 100 million Americas per the NSC's own data, and I do not think it's risky behavior. I could be convinced otherwise only if there was a showing that a cellphone ban will cause a substantial reduction in the number of accidents. This "fact sheet" is a bit more substantive than what is being quoted in the press, but it still doesn't provide a satisfactory answer to this question, mostly because it fails to actually cite the studies it makes reference to, and so its impossible to tell whether or not these results are being spun. The only study that is referenced is a study on texting while driving which is substantially different. They do cite this statistic: Cell phone use contributes to an estimated 6 percent of all crashes, which equates to 636,000 crashes, 330,000 injuries, 12,000 serious injuries and 2,600 deaths each year. (Harvard Center of Risk Analysis).
Thats a start, but wait, what does "which equates to" mean? It sounds like they are assuming that all crashes are equal, and 6% of crashes result in 2,600 deaths, and so cellphone use is implicated in 2,600 annual deaths. But you can't just extrapolate like that. Are cellphone related accidents more or less likely to be fatal than other kinds of accidents? What does "estimated" mean? Are these real numbers or not? What about "contributes to?" What percentage of these are cases where the driver was drunk and on the cellphone, or speeding and on the cellphone? Unfortunately, I can't tell, because no actual study is referenced. When I google around for the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (SIC) I get studies that have very much the opposite conclusion: Study Finds That Restricting Cell Phones While Driving May Be Premature, That Benefits May Be More Compelling Than The Risks
Are they citing a newer study? What study? Many of the other claims made in this fact sheet are also questionable or involve studies that reach conclusions which have been contested by other studies which aren't mentioned here. The fact is that you have a ban in California. Has there been a decrease in the number of automotive fatalities since in the ban was put in place? This is a very simple piece of data to collect. The fact that these people aren't trumpeting it leads me to suspect that it doesn't reveal what they want it to reveal. |
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RE: Cell Phone Use While Driving Fact Sheet
by noteworthy at 8:47 pm EST, Jan 12, 2009 |
The National Safety Council is all over the press calling for an immediate ban on the use of cellphones while driving. No actual study is referenced. Are they citing a newer study? What study?
(I understand your interest in seeing a study, but surely you don't expect a political campaign to seek justification on the basis of an academic (!) study?) Anyway, I found this one: A Revised Economic Analysis of Restrictions on the Use of Cell Phones While Driving, by Cohen, Joshua T.; Graham, John D. Risk Analysis, Volume 23, Number 1, February 2003.
In recent years, Cohen's published research has focused on fish consumption, mercury intake, and consequent effects on prenatal health and heart disease. In the 1980's and 1990's, Graham published several studies on automobile safety. Here's the abstract: Evidence that cell phone use while driving increases the risk of being involved in a motor vehicle crash has led policymakers to consider prohibitions on this practice. However, while restrictions would reduce property loss, injuries, and fatalities, consumers would lose the convenience of using these devices while driving. Quantifying the risks and benefits associated with cell phone use while driving is complicated by substantial uncertainty in the estimates of several important inputs, including the extent to which cell phone use increases a driver's risk of being involved in a crash, the amount of time drivers spend using cell phones (and hence their aggregate contribution to crashes, injuries, and fatalities), and the incremental value to users of being able to make calls while driving. Two prominent studies that have investigated cell phone use while driving have concluded that the practice should not be banned. One finds that the benefits of calls made while driving substantially exceed their costs while the other finds that other interventions could reduce motor vehicle injuries and fatalities (measured in terms of quality adjusted life years) at a lower cost. Another issue is that cell phone use imposes increased (involuntary) risks on other roadway users. This article revises the assumptions used in the two previous analyses to make them consistent and updates them using recent data. The result is a best estimate of zero for the net benefit of cell phone use while driving, a finding that differs substantially from the previous study. Our revised cost-effectiveness estimate for cell phone use while driving moves in the other direction, finding that the cost per quality adjusted life year increases modestly compared to the previous estimate. Both estimates are very uncertain.
Since its publication in 2003, this report has been ... [ Read More (0.2k in body) ] |
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