Decius wrote:
They want competent people who will run the government well, whether that means cutting taxes or raising them.

Even among moderates, I think tax rates matter, and what constitutes a well-run government is a subjective call. Like you, I think that voters should expect competence, and experience is certainly one of the factors to consider when determining a candidate's competence.

I don't think that the majority of Americans are strict centrists, and those independents who actually vote are probably in the minority. I agree that most citizens probably aren't into politics 24/7, and they just want to live their lives; but the role that government plays in our lives is an ever-present issue, and I think most Americans tend to be right-wingers or left-wingers, to varying degrees. Simply identifying oneself as being on the left or right (with or without party affiliation) doesn't make one an extremist. One can be a liberal Democrat without being radical, just as one can be a conservative Republican without being reactionary.

Decius wrote:
An inexperienced VP nominee won't serve them in that regard. I expect it to cause people to swing toward Obama, and so far polling has been fairly consistent with that expectation, but it won't be clear for another week.

If you're correct in your analysis, Obama should win by a healthy margin (possibly even a landslide, had Obama chosen Clinton). In a Republican vacuum (meaning McCain + just about anyone else), I think that's exactly what would've happened. I would've settled for Bob Barr, and I'd be thinking about tonight's Washington Redskins vs. N.Y. Giants game instead of politics; but Palin has changed the landscape. Now, I think we have a contest on our hands. For political junkies, the next two months should be fun.

RE: Community Organizers