Stefanie wrote:
Obama might be a nice guy (I've never met the man), but his political views are about as far from mine as one's can get. There's nothing Obama could have on his resume that would convince me to ignore that. I can't imagine swinging all the way from the right to the left (or vice versa) in a given election based on which candidates have slight edges in their job histories...

I don't expect such large swings to happen from people who have strong political views.

My perception of American politics is that most people here are moderates. They want to get along with their lives. They want lower taxes and government services. They want security and civil liberties. Their actual preferred policy is a mix of some laissez faire capitalism over here, some safety nets over there, some more police presence over here, some judicial review over there.

The parties on the other hand are run by radicals. Evangelicals who want to impose their religious values by force through the use of law enforcement. Anarcho-Capitalists who want to drastically cut government services. Socialists who think they are engaged in an epic class war and seek to redistribute the nation's wealth.

These people tend to nominate candidates that are on the edges of mainstream thought. Obama and Bush are both examples. The people are forced to select between extremes that they don't really accept.

I don't expect you to swing. But the general populace has swung. All the football spiking by Republicans after their clear victory in 2004 was completely reversed by 2006. The general population swings. Why?

Because they don't really care about politics. They want competent people who will run the government well, whether that means cutting taxes or raising them. The Republicans are loosing because they are thought incompetent. An inexperienced VP nominee won't serve them in that regard. I expect it to cause people to swing toward Obama, and so far polling has been fairly consistent with that expectation, but it won't be clear for another week.

RE: Community Organizers