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The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor
by Decius at 6:11 am EDT, Aug 17, 2008 |
The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status... Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.
Why did the U.S. bless this conflict? Did they intend to provide Russia this opportunity to make a demonstration in exchange for some covert concession? It occurs to me that perhaps they figured Russia planned invade outright and they wanted to push their hand early. |
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RE: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor
by Hijexx at 9:34 am EDT, Aug 17, 2008 |
Decius wrote: The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status... Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.
Why did the U.S. bless this conflict? Did they intend to provide Russia this opportunity to make a demonstration in exchange for some covert concession? It occurs to me that perhaps they figured Russia planned invade outright and they wanted to push their hand early.
Was hoping Stratfor would have something public soon, good read. One angle that occurred to me was if we get something started, chances are the next US President, whoever it may be, will pretty much have to pick up the mantle. A little insurance by Bush/Cheney? Could they be that cynical? As for the question of why did Georgia attack when they did, there's an old saying: When the cat is away the mice will play. The Olympics, Putin away, all that. Here's something I just started, haven't finished but so far so good: http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19538 Talks about the NATO angle and how alliances can also be breeding grounds for wars. Here's something from Nov 2007 about Georgia's build up. http://www.tiraspoltimes.com/news/arms_build_up_as_georgia_prepares_war_on_abkhazia_south_ossetia.html Look like the US started the arms build up in earnest in 2002. Long time coming. |
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RE: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor
by Lost at 12:59 pm EDT, Aug 17, 2008 |
Decius wrote: The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status... Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.
Why did the U.S. bless this conflict? Did they intend to provide Russia this opportunity to make a demonstration in exchange for some covert concession? It occurs to me that perhaps they figured Russia planned invade outright and they wanted to push their hand early.
I am reminded of Saddam announcing his intention to invade Kuwait repeatedly, before doing so. The reply he got was, "The US is against using force of arms to settle border disputes." We're asleep at the wheel. What the hell were we going to do about it? We probably told Georgia that Russia had forces massed at the border. Georgia ignores it and decides use those guns we've been giving them for something. They were getting shelled across the border. Perhaps a Russian invasion of those regions was preferable to getting shelled by separatists, and they under-estimated the Russian response? |
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The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor
by Lost at 11:09 am EDT, Aug 17, 2008 |
The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that the Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?
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