“We are in a holding pattern,” said Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research organization. “The military solution has gained enough peace to last through the U.S. election, but we have a situation that is extremely fragile. None of the violent actors have either been defeated or prevailed, and the political roots of the conflict have not been addressed, much less resolved.”

Already, a walk through neighborhoods where the volunteer groups are active is an unsettling experience. Small groups of young armed men guard street corners, while others ride in open trucks. In many areas they wear camouflage uniforms that resemble military ones, making it hard to tell whom they work for.