flynn23 wrote:
Maybe. But do you think that his gaining support will force other candidates to moderate their stances? Much like earlier dark horse candidates (Perot, Forbes, etc), their real value might be in raising consciousness and/or forcing particular issues. I'm not sure that he's as much of a snake as you purport, but even if he's disingenuous (likely, he's a politician), his rhetoric cannot be simply cast aside any longer.

First I want to say that I think the rules have changed a bit. The old analysis that these people are unelectable may no longer be correct because the Internet has changed how opinions are made. In this regard I think Ron Paul's campaign is more similar to Howard Dean's than Pat Buchanan's. I think Dean was a surprise, and I think Paul will be surprising.

As far as what the campaign that supports him will teach the mainstream candidates, as he is a radical I'm not sure any of those impacts would be moderating. Perhaps this question would be better answered by a supporter of his who can see good in his campaign. I'm very cynical about him at the moment. Here are the possibilities I'd raise:

Major impacts:

- A harder line on immigration. Obviously the Republican voter wants a harder line on immigration than the leadership of the party is willing to stomach. Paul's success is just the latest in a collection of political signals in this regard. Some favored Paul policy positions may find their way into the Republican platform, including attacks on legal immigrants.

- Spend less money. The success of Paul indicates that there is a lot of money out there that is willing to fund a candidate who will cut taxes regardless of the circumstances. This might make the Republican party take a harder line on healthcare, social security, etc...

Minor impacts:

- Judicial appointments. Paul's position on the Constitution is more conservative than any sitting justice. There are people in the federalist society who are sympathetic to his perspective. His campaign will embolden them that they can talk openly about what they want and they can even color it as advocacy of greater freedom.

- Isolationsim. Paul's success indicates that there is still a roll for isolationism in the modern republican party after 9/11. I think pro war republicans are the force that is most likely to block Paul's progress, but prior to this, the old school isolationism was completely gone from the Republican dialog and its clearly back now.

The sum is that the Republican party becomes, well, more Republican... Low taxes, fewer civil liberties. How thats different from what the Republican party has been offering for decades I'm not sure.

RE: The Volokh Conspiracy - Ron Paul on Racism