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The coming IT revolution.
by Decius at 1:10 am EST, Nov 21, 2002

Microsoft is aggressively pursuing digital rights management while simultaneously raising the cost of their software and systems. TCPA based computers are already on the market, and over the next two years this technology will have more and more impact on how consumers can use their computers.

Consumers will buy TCPA. They will buy it because they are being told that it protects them from viruses and hackers. However, when the DRM capabilities of this technology begin to rear their heads, consumers will be unhappy.

If consumers accept DRM with open arms this will be unprecedented. Previous efforts like DIVX failed miserably. Consumers don't choose products that limit their capabilities.

As these developments occur over the next two years, their are two platforms that will present themselves as viable options.

One is Apple. Apples can do pretty much anything you can do with your PC, with the same files. Apples suck less. (They are FAR from perfect, but they suck less.) They are expensive, but they also do not have DRM. Apple has clearly stated they don't believe DRM will actually work.

The other is Linux. Linux as a desktop isn't THERE yet. Its still clunky. But its ALMOST there, and companies like Lindows selling desktop linux machines at Walmart are incented to get it there. I can certainly imagine the remaining rough edges being smoothed out within the next two years.

So just as the Wintel platform begins telling you "I can't do that, dave." when you ask it to rip your CDs, a number of viable platform options will be reaching maturity.

However, while the home user's interest in information freedom might cause a large migration to Apple and Linux in the consumer market,
the corporate IT market may be very happy with TCPA. Corporate IT has intellectual property management and system administration needs that are well met by TCPA. It allows them to deploy desktops that
their employees can't really control. Central control means consistency and compliance. If general market conditions don't improve the price advantage of linux will look very attractive to corporate buyers, but if they have leeway to make expensive capital expenditures then the large companies will buy TCPA.

So the result that you may see by 2005 is a situation where most people use UNIX in the home and WINDOWS in the office.

There are a couple of caveats here:

1. The government: The government could pass laws making DRM mandatory, or limiting peoples ability to emulate popular windows file formats.

2. Mozilla. Mozilla is clunky. Its bad on linux. Its worse on OSX. IE is just plain better technology. Of all of the Microsoft products that I have used over the years, I am most impressed with it, except on the Mac, where their page rendering is a generation behind the times.

The web is the central part of our computing experience today, and for the forseeable future. If Mozilla doesn't improve, then these options will not be viable. Apple and the various linux vendors should invest in Mozilla's maturity.

I think there are a lot of implications of this for the copyright conflict, anti-trust conflicts, internet standards, etc...

What do YOU think?

RE: The coming IT revolution.
by Decius at 11:41 pm EST, Nov 21, 2002

Hijexx wrote:

] Will the Joe Sixpacks unite? Probably not. They're too busy
] making the credit card payments for their shiny new system.
] If they did organize, it'd probably be too late in the game.

They don't have to unite and they don't have to organize. They just have to make an alternative platform decision. One at a time. The thing that has prevented them from doing this in the past has been either compatibility or that the other platforms simply weren't as good. Linux isn't as good as a desktop and MacOS has sucked for years.

Eliminate those barriers, and then provide them with an incentive.

] In short, DIVX failed because people didn't want their phone
] lines tied up and were accustomed to watching their movies
] when they wanted.

No to the former and yes to the later. DSS uses your phone line. In fact, almost all PPV systems do. No one minds. DIVX failed because it seemed to offer less flexibility in what you could do with your movies. DRM faces the same problem. It offers less flexibility.

] For all the hooplah, no one has quite figured out what they
] really want a computer for.

Same reason they've always wanted one. Word processing. Thats why you get a computer. People like email. Thats why they get the net. People also like video games, but I think VG systems offer a better option then computer gaming at this stage. In fact, that reality fits into my analysis. People won't buy computers for games in 2 years. People will buy specialized game systems like the X box. Those systems will be powerful enough to handle all their gaming needs.

"Convergence" always has been a myth. Computers are not about what you can consume, they are about what you can create, and the fact is that things like convergence are all about the idea that we'll consume everything in one place. It totaly ignores what we might be creating.

] ] they also do not have DRM. Apple has clearly stated they
] don't
] ] believe DRM will actually work.
]
] Just because Apple doesn't believe DRM will work doesn't mean
] they won't implement it. It's all about appeasing
] shareholders and whoring for clients.

Yes, it does. This is not a campaign promise or a marketing spin. Its an observation. DRM doesn't work. And they are right. DRM DOESN'T work. Their shareholders aren't going to force them to implement something that doesn't work. Their shareholders are a bunch of fanatics who think that apple is "cool." They have no will and have kept the company way overvalued even when they have been tanking HARD. And Apple doesn't have any large corporate clients. They lost them all in the mid-90's because macOS sucked. If corporate clients (who really don't care about DRM either) force them to go this direction those clients are clients they don't have yet.

The reason MS is going DRM is because they are trying to prevent more government interv... [ Read More (0.1k in body) ]

RE: The coming IT revolution.
by Reknamorken at 12:11 pm EST, Nov 22, 2002

Decius wrote:
] 2. Mozilla. Mozilla is clunky. Its bad on linux. Its worse on
] OSX. IE is just plain better technology. Of all of the
] Microsoft products that I have used over the years, I am most
] impressed with it, except on the Mac, where their page
] rendering is a generation behind the times.

Hrm... I don't know. It's not that bad. I'm using it about 30% of the time at work now. Especially because IE tends to crash over time. Have you tried 1.2? I was under the impression that it's faster. I think I'm running 1.1 at work.

You're most impressed by IE? I'd throw Excel and Word in there before IE. They don't crash as much and their functionality is awesome. Maybe PowerPoint too, but I don't really use it as a power user so I'm not sure.

Otherwise I agree with everything you said. :D