k wrote:
My analysis tells me that the surge is too little, too late. Granted, I'm not an expert on military tactics, but neither are 99.99% of other humans with an opinion. The fact of the matter is that I don't think the situation is salvageable. I don't think I have to wait another 20 days to say that.

Well, the Pentagon, which employs experts on military tactics, says that they can't tell whether or not this is working until it reaches a certain stage. "The surge" is not merely a re-enforcement and it doesn't unfold in a linear way. Its more complicated then that.

And assuming we'll know more at that time further presupposes that one expects to get any genuine facts next month. As if it's suddenly it's all gonna become clear... some day in mid-September is a magical day when all the real facts on the ground will become transparent and indisputable. It's it really believable that this administration's going to honestly report if the surge is failing miserably? I think not. That level of trust is quite simply naive at this point, and there's no other word for it.

Its not as if George Bush is personally reporting in September. The military is. The reason its clear at that point and not clear now is that at that point they have completed enough of the tasks in their project plan to be able to assess the effectiveness of their new tactics. The assessment will be quantitative and you'll have access to data. I seriously think that you expect them to lie because you don't like George Bush and not because you've looked into what they are doing and what they are reporting on, and I think you should.

Are you serious?

Of course.

You don't think politics have an effect on the long term efficacy of military actions in Iraq?

That isn't what I said. I said that politics are unrelated to the short term efficacy of our tactics change.

Insulting me will avail you not at all.

I'm sorry, I didn't mean you personally. I meant you collectively... the people who have prejudged this thing. I did not mean to insult you.

It's not an extremist position to
a) believe the war was executed incorrectly from day 1
b) believe that the surge is an ineffective gesture; pabulum meant to subdue the American public and congress
c) distrust the administrations claims about this war.

No, its not. A is clearly correct by anyone's estimation, and A clearly implies C. The problem is B.

If the surge report is positive and the US pulls out anyway it will show, at MOST, that the American people and congress no longer have faith in this administration or even, possibly, government in general, and completely disbelieve it.

Perhaps. They may be the boy who cried wolf at this point, but that story is a tragic one.

RE: Obsidian Wings: Bush's Speech