Mike the Usurper wrote:

flynn23 wrote:

Mike the Usurper wrote:

flynn23 wrote:

Decius wrote:
I've spoken to a number of people over the past few years who've convinced themselves that the housing bubble is really only something that is going on in California and the increase in their home price is real permanent wealth. Such a fallacy is perfectly understandable emotionally, but its bad business. Here are some graphs of the regions of the country that are most impacted by the "sub prime" forclosure problem. Do you live in one of the darkly colored areas? If so, lots of people in your area can't afford to pay their mortgages. That means housing prices in your area are going to go down. Most of the Americans on MemeStreams that I know live in such an area.

For sure, the predatory practices of lenders over the last couple of years has definitely pushed the market into uncomfortable territory, and there will be another wave of fallout as investors get whacked on their returns, but this will probably clear up by years end, maybe Q108, and then you'll see prices start rising again. Except for areas that are still dealing with fundamental economic depression (like MI).

I'd be a bit wary of making that call. While productivity has been up, median income has actually been down, so I don't think you'll see a rebound. Stabilization yes, barring something else happening, but I don't see this one doing a bounce back, Joe Six-Pack doesn't have the money to power it. (So much for supply-side economics)

You're missing the fact that most of the gap has been made up by increasing home equity/value rise. How else are we going to fuel our debt? It's gotta come from somewhere and this has been the engine for the last 8 years or so.

No, I'm not missing that. You're assuming the debt continues to be fueled. I'm saying it's a very real possibility that the "debt engine" breaks. Welcome to 1929 all over again.

I'm sticking my head in the sand, plugging my ears, and singing "LALALALALALA!!!"

RE: The Big Picture | Brief Foreclosure History & Mortgage Delinquency Maps