I haven't seen the right wing spin on last nights events yet. I'm not sure its out. But the left wing has jumped on this, and their message, frankly, strikes a nerve. We've been avoiding talks with these people for years. If we're not willing to take the casualties associated with war there, and we're not (which is why we provided aid during their famine), then we need to engage in dialog.

Think of NK as the world's biggest hostage situation. We need to talk them down, and reunification of the country is a carrot that we can use in that discussion. We're not doing that, which means we're doing fuck all except being jerks. Had I bothered to really think about NK prior to this event, this conclusion would have been obvious. The problem is now we've made being jerks a matter of will, and so in the wake of this event a shift in our policy is capitualtion. We need a forgein policy with a more nuanced understanding of international relations than "you're either with us or against us."

I don't think it's that simple. Reunification has been the topic of discussion since 1998 when South Korea adopted the Sunshine policy, blatantly stating they wanted to reunite Korea. The carrot is constantly being dangled. They will not do anything to move toward the carrot. They don't even make token efforts to disarm. All the talks have aimed at some level of disarmament, with carrots dangled. The initial point of the six party talks was to get North Korea to even start disarming, and moving away from it's "songun" policy so that we could find ways to legitimately unfuck the North Korean economy. Kim refuses abandon the "songun" policy, which basically translates to "military-first", and means that not only does the military get first priority on all resources, aid or otherwise, but that the military is also the primary priority of all state based development efforts.

I don't think it's fair to say we have avoided talks. We have been trying to get North Korea to the table with the other nations in the region. Any improvement in the situation with North Korea will require the other nations in the area. North Korea has backed out of talks with Seoul too. They snub China to the degree China doesn't cut off aid. They use the US like a strawman, blaming everything that happens on us. They supply weapons to our enemies. Everything this regime does amounts to extortion and bullshit. The only thing they export is weapons and strategic instability.

I'm not completely against bi-lateral talks with North Korea, but I seriously doubt they will achieve anything. It will just give them a chance to storm out of the talks, like they do almost all talks. Have there actually been any talks that the North Koreans didn't storm out of, that actually produced a resolution they followed? It's become quite rewarding behavior for them.. They keep getting away with it.

Update:

Furthermore...

But the left wing has jumped on this, and their message, frankly, strikes a nerve.

This guy appears to have been appointed to positions for the Republicans more recent then the Democrats. If he is partisan, it didn't seen to matters to another Bush..

Donald Gregg was a CIA official since 1951 and a liaison to President Carter's National Security Council and, National Security Advisor to Vice President George H.W. Bush and U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 1989 to 1993. He's now chairman of the board of the Korea Society

Being an ambassador during the only period the Sunshine policy was showing any promise or gains, might yield some insight..

Rattle wrote:

Kim refuses abandon the "songun" policy, which basically translates to "military-first", and means that not only does the military get first priority on all resources, aid or otherwise, but that the military is also the primary priority of all state based development efforts.

He can't. There isn't enough stuff to go around in NK, so the people who are good at killing people are first in line. This keeps them happy, which keeps him in power. If he formally announced a change in this policy he would be dead before you can go through a bottle of Soju. The militarism is not negotiable. The socialism is. You cannot make a nonnegotialble point a prerequisit for proceeding. You have to start building industry in there and transforming the economy. Once the economy sucks less there will be less pressure for militarism. You have to boil the frogs here. Its delicate, but its not impossible.

I'm not completely against bi-lateral talks with North Korea, but I seriously doubt they will achieve anything. It will just give them a chance to storm out of the talks, like they do almost all talks. Have there actually been any talks that the North Koreans didn't storm out of, that actually produced a resolution they followed? It's become quite rewarding behavior for them.. They keep getting away with it.

AFAIK, you are either talking, or bombing. What does this standoff accomplish? What do you suggest?

He can't. There isn't enough stuff to go around in NK, so the people who are good at killing people are first in line. This keeps them happy, which keeps him in power. If he formally announced a change in this policy he would be dead before you can go through a bottle of Soju. The militarism is not negotiable. The socialism is. You cannot make a nonnegotialble point a prerequisit for proceeding. You have to start building industry in there and transforming the economy. Once the economy sucks less there will be less pressure for militarism. You have to boil the frogs here. Its delicate, but its not impossible.

What about what Clinton did? We offered to build them nuclear power plants, and even started doing so. They would not ease off on their military exports. If we ease up on restrictions, it's not like they are going to turn around and start making tennis rackets and sweaters.. They will pump up the arms exports to places like Yemen and Iran. The "military-first" thing isn't limited to who gets food first, it governs the entire economy of the country. Every time Kim has gotten something, it's because the fear of the arms build up got it. This action has been reinforced.

Let there be no mistake here.. We are dealing with a Hitler type. He has no interest in having a traditional economy. They believe that the only thing they need is a more powerful military.

AFAIK, you are either talking, or bombing. What does this standoff accomplish? What do you suggest?

China needs to cut off the air supply. Kim's only motivation is regime survival, even if it's at the cost of his people. That will continue and his people will continue to be the loosers. As is, and has been for awhile now, his people are starving to death. If he gets more resources it's only going to go to more arms buildup. It's only going to get worse. It's a clear cycle that they refuse to end. It's been going on for decades and I think the trend is clear. I think it's time to force their hand. Cut off the air supply and force the regime collapse.

I think this is what is going to happen. I don't see how this can continue to go on. I don't see how it can change. The sanctions are just going to keep getting tighter until the place collapses.

When the regime does collapse, it's going to be really, really, really nasty. However, it's only going to get worse as time goes on. I don't see other options. Talking has never worked; they refuse to rejoin talks and they refuse to follow resolutions that come out of talks. Bombing isn't an option. Forcing collapse by cutting off all aid and avenues of trade left is the only option I can see. Is there another?

The reason we don't engage in bi-lateral talks with North Korea isn't because we just don't want to talk to them.. It's because they have never followed any resolutions or taken any multi-party talks seriously. If they took the six party talks seriously, I'm sure we would talk directly with them. They have done _zero_ to even appear like an honest broker in talks.