The T.F.G., the A.U., the A.L., I.G.A.D. and the U.N. are powerless to avert a confrontation. Discredited by its former support of the warlords, Washington has failed to provide leadership, allowing divisions within the T.F.G. and the regional organizations to neutralize their effectiveness. Increasingly dependent on Ethiopia, the T.F.G. will find it difficult to make the concessions necessary to satisfy the I.C.C. The rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the tentativeness of Kenya and Uganda, eviscerate the A.U. and I.G.A.D. The A.L.-sponsored peace process is the only game in town, but the increasing polarization on the ground renders its success problematic.

The drift toward polarization is likely to continue until violent conflict erupts, one of the current key players retreats, or a player emerges from the sidelines with a fresh initiative. Given the prevalence of mutual uncertainties and suspicions, recent events in Somalia point toward further destabilization.