Some secondary thoughts: If you have a proprietary algoritm that picks Poseidnon as a likely hit, it’s time to get a a new algoritm. Libor 230 is an insanely low risk premium for the chance of losing all your money if Mexico has an Earthquake in the next three years; to compare the market pricing for secured near investment grade debt is L 220. If a Mexican offered me that deal, I’d build a fence around him on the spot.