Mike the Usurper wrote:

saying he wanted to stockpile enough vaccine to protect 20 million Americans against the current strain of bird flu.

Once again, dubya demonstrates why Crawford needs their villiage idiot back. The current strain of bird flu is a great hazard to birds, and probably to the people who handle them, but making a vaccine for the current strain will do a whole lot of nothing other than throw yet more money down a hole.

Funding research is one thing, and creating a system to produce vaccines faster than the current system is a good idea, except the way to actually DO that would be to put it under the direct control of either CDC or NIH, and I think that'd be a bit too much socialized medicine for these guys. If this goes through it is yet another windfall for pharmaceutical companies and yet another shovel to the back of the head for everyone else.

The conspiracy theorist that lives in the back of my head is wondering if bush is planning to set himself up as a hero by the end of his term. A bird flu leak would seem very convenient.

Mike the Usurper wrote:
Once again, dubya demonstrates why Crawford needs their villiage idiot back. The current strain of bird flu is a great hazard to birds, and probably to the people who handle them, but making a vaccine for the current strain will do a whole lot of nothing other than throw yet more money down a hole.

This FAQ from the NIH covers the vaccine...

If cases of human infections increase, people simultaneously infected with human and avian influenza strains could become a “mixing vessel” for the disease. The result could be the emergence of a lethal H5N1 influenza virus that is easily transmitted from person to person. Such an easily transmissible virus could trigger a worldwide influenza pandemic.

i.e. if they prevent people from getting the current strain it will help prevent a jump to a form that can be transmitted between people.

We know that flu viruses change over time (a process known as “antigenic drift”). However, in response to the increasing number of H5 cases reported in early 2004, public health officials deemed it critical to move ahead quickly and select one of the available human H5 viruses for vaccine production. If a distinct H5N1 virus should suddenly emerge, an additional new vaccine against that strain may be needed. Ultimately, the experience gained by manufacturers in preparing the current vaccine should make us better prepared for the next time.

NIH on Bird Flu Vaccine

Decius wrote:

Mike the Usurper wrote:
The current strain of bird flu is a great hazard to birds, and probably to the people who handle them, but making a vaccine for the current strain will do a whole lot of nothing other than throw yet more money down a hole.

Can you site a reference for this? Is it clear that a vaccine for the present strain would not produce antibodies that are effective against mutant strains?

Here's one of the places it is noted, but this was something that was heavily discussed after the botch with last year's flu vaccine. They need the actual pathogen, and while close might help, it needs to be close enough.

The best way to do this is have the infrastructure ready to go like I said. The problem is, there's no money in vaccines, so the impetus for the private sector just isn't there. There IS money in the anti-flu drugs like Tamiflu (with a price tag of $60).

Mike the Usurper wrote:

Decius wrote:

Mike the Usurper wrote:
The current strain of bird flu is a great hazard to birds, and probably to the people who handle them, but making a vaccine for the current strain will do a whole lot of nothing other than throw yet more money down a hole.

Can you site a reference for this? Is it clear that a vaccine for the present strain would not produce antibodies that are effective against mutant strains?

Here's one of the places it is noted, but this was something that was heavily discussed after the botch with last year's flu vaccine. They need the actual pathogen, and while close might help, it needs to be close enough.

The best way to do this is have the infrastructure ready to go like I said. The problem is, there's no money in vaccines, so the impetus for the private sector just isn't there. There IS money in the anti-flu drugs like Tamiflu (with a price tag of $60).

Vaccines are always a hit or miss. At the time that people get their annual flu shot, doctors/scientists are always unsure about whether or not the flu shot will actually help against the current year's flu. The real problem is the technology of making the vaccines. They can't "have an infastructure ready to go" to make a vaccine, because due to technical challenges, it takes six months to actually make the vaccine. That is why you get your flu shot before/right at the start of flu season as opposed to right after the start of flu season, when they would be able to design a vaccine that specifically target the current year's flu virus. I don't agree that it is a waste of money to have avian flu vaccines around. Although right now, avian flu seems to be most harmful to birds, the particular strain (H5N1) is interesting, and will be monitored closely by the CDC and the WHO. Whereas most of the time, flu would normally be most fatal to young children (who haven't had the time to develop a hefty aquired immunity system) and older people (who are susceptible to illness), the avian flu (much like the deadly 1918 pandemic strain) has been seen to affect cytokine activity (cytokines being signalling molecules for the immune system), thus becoming very dangerous for people in any age group. The 1918 pandemic was so deadly because it caused people's immune system to start attacking their lungs...so it was especially lethal to people with healthy immune systems (people in their 20s and 30s). Thus, if H5N1 turns into a pandemic, it could be quite serious, and so having a vaccine around - even if it isn't perfect - is important. I do agree that spending money on making drugs such as Tamiflu is also important (H5N1 is currently suceptible to these neuraminidase inhibitors), however, that can't be the only source of defence against a virus, because it is only effective if taken within 48 hours of symptoms appearing. As well, if the public sees money being funnelled into Tamiflu, they will start stockpiling it (actually, this has already been rumored to have started), or worst, taking it for symptoms that aren't actually the flu, thus generating resistance. Basically, I think we really need to be funding the research of vaccine production...if we could generate a faster way to produce vaccines, that would be the best thing. There are several groups studying this, and several models that are in clinical trials at the moment.
Anyway, thats the end of my rant for the evening, but if you are interested in reading more on this subject, I direct you to the November 2005 issue of Scientific American. They have a very informative and interesting article in there about preparing for potential pandemics.