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Greece says has detected one case of birdflu
by Mike the Usurper at 2:25 pm EDT, Oct 17, 2005 |
The ministry said the turkey came from a small private poultry farm of about 20 turkeys on the tiny island of Inousses off Chios which belongs to the Chios prefecture.
The only question about what happens next is virulence. This WILL make a jump to human transmission, and based on the spread rate among birds (which don't move around as randomly as we do) and assuming transmission among humans is as easy, this will be global at the same time we realize it has made the shift. The question is, how to deal with it. Quarantine won't be of any use, by the time it's known, it will be too late. It's viral, which means there isn't really a treatment. If a vaccine can be developed, that would make an enormous difference, but that's not a sure thing, and the numbers required would be astronomical. Best case scenario? The version that makes the leap isn't especially virulent and it's like an average flu. 35-50,000 dead. A more realistic answer? 350,000-5,000,000 (one to two odrers of magnitude worse). Worst case? Decimation. We'll see what happens. |
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RE: Greece says has detected one case of birdflu
by Lost at 3:38 pm EDT, Oct 17, 2005 |
The question is, how to deal with it. Quarantine won't be of any use, by the time it's known, it will be too late. It's viral, which means there isn't really a treatment. If a vaccine can be developed, that would make an enormous difference, but that's not a sure thing, and the numbers required would be astronomical. Best case scenario? The version that makes the leap isn't especially virulent and it's like an average flu. 35-50,000 dead. A more realistic answer? 350,000-5,000,000 (one to two odrers of magnitude worse). Worst case? Decimation. We'll see what happens.
But actually, wouldn't stockpiling the few anti-influenza drugs that are available reduce the death rate tremendously, at least in developed nations where people have access to them? |
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