Decius wrote:

government structure: This is a US centric response: I don't see many structural changes occuring in a 15 year timespan, other then the final nails in the coffin of the idea that the commerce clause restricts federal authority.

Global commerce is linked to government structure by more than just federal changes in the U.S. I am thinking more about the interactions between countries of varying structures. E.g. U.S. companies have to jump through a lot of hoops to do business in China. Maybe I'm having trouble qualify this aspect?

Around the year 2020 there will be a major social crisis that is more along the scale of WWII then 911 or Katrina.

Crisis management is certainly going to be a hot topic for a little while. Just how long will it last in this country in the wake of Katrina is another story. How about crisis prevention planning in Southeast Asia following the tsunami? As much as a I want to believe that crises are drivers of the economic environment, I just don't think that they have much sticking power with Joe Schmoe. This is especially true when the media has such an influence over people and their perceptions of domestic problems.

language: English will continue to make progress as the, ehm, lingua franca, but progress in this area will be slow.

I was thinking in terms of language as interactions among people whether via translation software, coding languages, or open source projects. I want to step back from the spoken word to its contribution to culture and technology.

Good jobs in the US will be less and less knowledge based and more and more service based, focusing on proximity to clients.

I could not disagree more. We're already transition from a mindset of "the customer is always right" to "the customer doesn't know what they want, much less how they want it." My professor thinks that the U.S. will transition from manufacturing and commodities to services such as sustainability consulting. A service economy in a newer sense. Streamlining processes will be in high demand. But, I don't think it can happen by 2020 without a much more progressive administration. We can't help but approach your distopia unless we quit squashing new ideas at every turn.

Another big driver mentioned by the class that I didn't give as an example was population. I've read several reports on this issue that project a levelling off of growth around 2050. Could estimates of this phenemenon be more accurate in 2020? I doubt it; 15 years isn't enough time for the models to self-correct.

Keep those drivers/comments coming!

Thanks, Decius.

-janelane, intrigued

RE: The Year 2020