Decius wrote:

Intel is fed up with Microsoft. Microsoft has no innovation that drives what Intel must have, which is a use for more processing power. And when they did have one with the Xbox, they went elsewhere.

So Intel buys Apple and works with their OEMs to get products out in the market.

Cringely has a radical vision of the Apple/Intel deal involving cheap commodity Macs...

Bob and I (not suprisingly) are in the same zipcode, but I've noticed that his predictions have become more and more fantastical lately. Perhaps he's in need of readership bumps? He's starting to sound like Dvorak.

In any case, IMHO, I think he's close. I do agree that Intel's interest in this is partly driven from Microsoft's abusive behavior in the relationship. Picking the Cell for Xbox 360 had to have hurt. Intel's roadmap is clearly in generating growth with products that are not necessary PC CPU's (witness Centrino, WiMax, etc). Like I said in a previous thread, there's GOT to be a soap opera behind all of this with plenty of bungled moves and hidden agendas. I look forward to the book/movie.

From my perspective, I can see Steve thinking that he's finally figured out a strategy to stick it to Gates. Steve's got the best OS in the industry right now (again). Steve's got himself positioned as a prime beneficiary of digital content moving into the 21st century (as hardware, software, and service vendor to boot!). Steve's got himself positioned to enter the consumer electronics industry in a major way (the only industry that's bigger than the business PC industry). Steve makes the best laptops in the world, and certainly the sexiest computers, if not the best (mainly just due to cost and marketing muscle from Dell et all does he not get to claim 'best'). All he needs to vaunt Apple back into a dominant position is chipsets which allow him to extend all of those positions. Clearly IBM wasn't seeing the light and he is taking advantage of Intel's displeasure with Microsoft.

I cannot see, in any form or fashion, Intel buying Apple. No one will buy Apple. Ever. It would be dead long before that happened. The value that Apple brings to the entire industry would be snuffed out if it were acquired, so no player would dare jeopardize that. Much less, with Steve back in control, I doubt his ego could take that. If anything, he's probably more motivated to etch his legacy than ever before.

I don't know if I see Intel OEM's being too excited about bringing Apple hardware to the marketplace. Maybe some of them (HP, Gateway, possibly Dell) because they wouldn't have the product lineup to compete with Apple's movements into the content and consumer electronics markets. Apple is, afterall, a hardware company. And so they'd be competing for the same customers. There's still a sizable amount of Apple's infrastructure that's catered to channel sales, development, and distribution. They would not want to shed that and let someone else do it. It would be too risky.

Ironically, HP's decision to can Carly clearly is putting them in a weaker position in this regard than stronger. Carly evangelized bringing more product development muscle from HP into the marketplace, which would've allowed them to foster a beachhead and at least defend against Apple. Dell has nothing other than Chinese knockoffs of anything that Apple could produce. I could actually see Dell trying to get closer to Microsoft, since they'd need the help in building the software for all of that copycat hardware. Gateway needs something, anything, to keep it relevant.

The only thing that seems to make sense here from an OEM perspective is that they'd keep Microsoft even more honest and they'd drive more growth because now they'd be able to sell hardware that at least 3 major OS's could support (plus I would be certain that they'd get a chunk of the OS sales on that hardware).

Sun is dead, no matter how any of this shakes out.

In the end, I do think that a new chipset comes from Intel that can drive 64bit OSX. Apple needs a high performing, cool and power efficient laptop chip. Apple needs a low cost but high performing consumer chip. Apple will likely also want satellite devices to support their strategy (Wireless, video iPod, home media, etc) which Intel would likely build the chipsets for. None of these are likely the same fab system, so I don't see them being x86 or even necessarily ia64 based.

I still say that this is absolutely friggin HUGE news though even if half of it develops the way I think it could. So it literally could be the beginning of the decline of Microsoft (which frankly I think has already happened).

RE: PBS | I, Cringely . June 9, 2005 - Going for Broke