] Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking
] giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being
] bearish.
]
] But you should hear what he's saying in private.
]
] Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
] last week, including a group at Fidelity.
]
] His prediction: America has no better than a 10
] percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
]
] Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the
] Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A
] stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck
] me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
] in public.''

] Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking
] giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being
] bearish.
]
] But you should hear what he's saying in private.
]
] Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
] last week, including a group at Fidelity.
]
] His prediction: America has no better than a 10
] percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
]
] Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the
] Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A
] stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck
] me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
] in public.''

I don't think this is a big surpise to people who have been watching this sort of thing, the fact people with big bank accounts are starting to say it should be frightening.

] In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's
] record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling.
] To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting
] rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
] Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further
] and faster than he wants.
]
] The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to
] their eyeballs, will get pounded.
]
] Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a
] ``Perfect Storm.''

[ I've been reading more and more of this kind of story. It's scary. Having completely zeroed my credit cards, I'm presently working to pay off all my variable interest rate loans, because the rate hikes have already started. If you haven't consolidated those student loans onto something fixed, I don't think I'd wait... -k]