] They interviewed a total of 7,868 people in 988 ] households. But the relevant sample size for many ] purposes%u2014for instance, measuring the uncertainty of ] the analysis%u2014is 33, the number of clusters. That is ] because the data from individuals within a given cluster ] are highly correlated. Statistically, 33 is a relatively ] small sample (though it is the best that could be ] obtained by a small number of investigators in a country ] at war). That is the reason for the large range around ] the central value of 98,000, and is one reason why that ] figure might be wrong. (Though if this is the case, the ] true value is as likely to be larger than 98,000 as it is ] to be smaller.) It does not, however, mean, as some ] commentators have argued in response to this study, that ] figures of 8,000 or 194,000 are as likely as one of ] 98,000. Quite the contrary. The farther one goes from ] 98,000, the less likely the figure is. |