janelane wrote:
] Decius wrote:
] ] Elonka wrote:
] ] ] Yes, but if he *did* get rid of Rumsfeld, and Ashcroft,
] who
] ] ] would you most like to see in those posts? Are there
] ] moderate
] ] ] names that come to your mind, who you think would be good
] ] ] choices?
] ]
] ] I honestly don't know enough about this to have an answer.
] Who
] ] are the hot shot federal attorneys? Who is making waves at
] ] State or the Pentagon or the strategic think tanks? Knowing
] ] these answers would be instructive in that it would allow
] you
] ] think think about who is likely to be running things 4-8-12
] ] years from now, but I don't even know where to start.
]
] Don't forget about the possibility of Bush having the power to
] appoint two Supreme Court justices over the course of the next
] 4 years. Renquist is most certainly out and control of the
] Supreme Court would seriously affect what ammendments are
] passed. I've even heard on NPR that Bush is specifically
] looking at younger candidates for the position i.e. trying to
] wring the most out of the lifetime appointment aspect. The
] Judicial and Executive branches showdown would be a losing
] proposition for the American public if they wound up in bed
] together.

I think you'll see something along the following lines. Powell quits in the next six months. He may be replaced at State by Condi or W may go out and choose someone else who fits the mold of his "mandate" better. Rumsfeld may choose to step aside (he certainly won't be fired, but he might decide he likes fishing) and if so, he's replaced by Paul Wolfowitz. Those are the two big positions in the cabinet.

The court is a much, much uglier question. You aren't looking at two justices likely gone, you're much more likely looking at four, possibly five. Rehnquist may not survive to the end of the year, and there will be a nominee likely in the spring. One likely choice would be Alberto Gonzalez, but I expect to see a long list of nominees of like mind to Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia. Maybe the guy the Alabama State court censured and kicked off over the Ten Comandments flap. Other justices likely to retire (more likely expire) include O'Connor, Stevens and Ginsberg. Kennedy is also no spring chicken, and could end up on that list as well. Every Bush appointee will be AT LEAST as "conservative" as Rehnquist.

The nominees will also be in their late 40's to mid to late 50's ensuring that they would have long tenures on the court.

I put "conservative" in quotes, because that's how they'll be described. The reality is, they will be heavily reactionary, and very activist, rolling back anything they can get near from the second half of the 20th century. Likely victims of a new court would be Roe v Wade, and Miranda. Things that I do not expact to be overturned, but nibbled at would include things like Brown v Board of Education and Furman v Georgia.

That's a short list anyway. I expect reality to be much worse.

RE: Bush wins