Elonka wrote:
] A similar argument could be made the other way around. If a
] terrorist group decided to try to disrupt elections in the
] U.S. by igniting one bomb in each of 20 different cities,
] would that then invalidate the entire election?

Thats not a fair analogy. Thats not the situation. They are actually not going to hold the election at all in the most populated areas in the country, because its too violent to hold it there.

But you don't have to take my word for it. This isn't about what *I* think.

Every credible commentator that I have found who does not have a personal vested interest in the idea of elections in January has said that democracy in Iraq is unlikely to happen in the short term. I want a counter point. Otherwise I'm inclined to side with several strategists who are now arguing that the U.S. mostly needs to figure out how to limit its exposure.

Fukuyama and Friedman are conservatives. Both of them support the administration. Fukuyama is on one of Bush's advisory boards. They are extremely unlikely to criticize flippantly.

] In my opinion, if 80% of
] Iraq's population *is* able to participate in an election,
] especially such a historic one in such a turbulent time, I
] think that's pretty good for a first try.

Then by your own standards you cannot support the validity of this election!

Rumsfeld didn't say 3/4s of the population. He said 3/4ths of the geographic area. He talks about geographic areas rather then populations because it sounds better. For obvious reasons the violence is occurring where the people are. The 3/4s of the country where they can "hold an election" are vast stretches of open desert and the Kurdish controlled land. We're not talking about anything near 80% of the population.

] To get back to the original subject though... If all we're
] talking about is the scheduling of the Iraqi elections, then
] yes, I agree it's worth re-examining the schedule to make sure
] it makes sense.

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about our long term prognosis for success. I'm having trouble finding someone who can say "this is going to work" who doesn't have strings attached to the White House.

RE: BarlowFriendz: Exit Strategies (updated)