Decius wrote:
] Probably required skimming for people interested in things
] like MemeStreams.
]
] This article underlines why Apple's "99 cents a song" model
] will go the way of the 8 track. Micropayments only make sense
] to accountants.
]
] The price of the content that you want will be low, because
] you won't want the lowest common denominator "pop"
] information. You'll want the niche stuff with low demand. As
] price approaches zero the cost of music begins to look a bit
] like cellphone airtime. It will varry greatly depending on
] what new tracks you are checking out and how popular they are.
] Customers in this world will demand some way to make costs
] predictable, as they do with other metered services. And so
] the flat rate music service wins.

[ I was hoping people would finally get around to this... I found it very compelling when i memed it back in oct, but it slipped under the radar i guess.

I think your analysis is probably correct if the kind of services grow that are predicted here. Micropayments are an ok idea without an infrastructure, but at the moment, the infrastructure necessary to exploit the niche markets isn't really there either. As it happens, I agree that the latter will happen sooner, and probably illegitimize the former for the most part. Still, some people have to knock out some pretty fabulous collaborative filtering and reputation systems for tunes, because there is an ocean of crap out there, and unless finding decent stuff becomes almost trivial, it'll be too daunting for most people. It's like going to used shops... you can find great stuff, but you need to have the knowledge and the inclination to flip through thousands of items to get to it.

For the moment, of course, I disagree that flat rate services are superior, primarily because I don't think the studios are interested in granting me the kind of licence to the work that I think they ought to. Neither does Apple, really, but it's closer. Maybe I'm just a pack rat, but I hate the concept of losing access to a piece of music just because I've stopped paying my monthly fee. -k]

RE: Wired 12.10: The Long Tail