Mike the Usurper wrote:
] Having lived in Iowa for quite some time and knowing where the
] electoral stock market is run from, I tend to think there
] isn't a bias in it. It's been dead on accurate for 20 years,
] a much better predictor of not just winners, but spreads, than
] any poll.
]
] Unless Iraq seriously blows up in the next few weeks
] (possible, likely even) and John Kerry gets his head out of
] his ass and figures out how to be an angry candidate, shrub is
] going to walk with this one.

[ Yeah, I don't deny that it's not encouraging, but I'm still feeling a net positive. Kerry does have to get on top of his attack game, and he's been better in the past few days, but no doubt there are weaknesses that he's not exploiting. The bottom line is to stay on top of issues, and not let people forget who fucked things up so bad. He's never had a chance of winning on his own merits... he's just a channel for calling out Bush's weaknesses. I've been dreaming about the debates. I may be overly optimistic (not something i'm accused of often, i assure you), but I think things will break our way, assuming the questions aren't a series of nice lobbed softballs. -k]

RE: IEM 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market Price Graph