Hijexx wrote:
] Obviously, there is a 13 year span there, with only a 4 year
] difference. Obviously predictions are wrong. I agree with
] that, because you can never know all the variables like
] technological advances, new finds, etc. You cover a lot in your post. I'll offer the following: 1. You writings on this subject have caused me to pay closer attention to it.
2. Clearly there is significant risk of depletion of oil reserves within our lifetimes.
3. I went and researched some other fossil fuels. The US has enough natural gas to provide its own supply for 70 years at the current rate of consumption, and the US supply is dwarfed by that of other countries. The U.S. also has 266 years of coal at present consumption rates. (Although in this case the U.S. appears to have 25% of the world's known coal supply.) Obviously the present rate of consumption isn't terribly helpful, but in any case we have enough of these resources to last for several generations even with significant growth.
4. As I've repeated said, the writing is on the wall. It is silly to ignore the problem.
5. Massive changes in the way American society is organized can not be expected to occur overnight. Any large scale change is risky and difficult to undertake. It must be carefully pursued.
6. If you want to reduce comsumption of oil, taxes are not an unreasonable approach and other countries employ them, but such a program cannot be pursued unless its coupled with the development of alternative methods of transportation. Europe can run high gas taxes because Europe has a great rail infrastructure. There is a massive investment to be undertaken here if we wish to pursue that approach. We appear to be pursuing an alternative approach of switching to fuel cell/electrical vehicles. This is, frankly, a similar strategy in the sense that both rely on central generation of electrical power and the question remains how do we generate that power without fossil fuels. Its a problem we have to solve, but not one we have to solve within a couple of decades.
7. Newsgateway.ca mostly consists of peak oil discussions and various 9/11 conspiracy theories, including articles like "Consider 20 parallels between the USA today and Hitlers Germany." Its about as fair and balanced as fox news. Debating this in detail is really beside the point. RE: As prices rise, concerns grow about world oil supplies |
