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The unemployment statistics the government doesn't want you to see... by Decius at 1:21 pm EST, Mar 31, 2004 |
] The number of unemployed workers (currently 8.2 million) ] and the national unemployment rate of 5.6% in February ] 2004 do not adequately convey the true labor slack in the ] economy for several reasons. One major understatement is ] that the unemployment rate does not reflect the uniquely ] large 1.2% decline in labor force participation that has ] occurred since the current recession began in early 2001. ] This decline represents a stark contrast to the past ] three business cycles, when labor force participation ] actually grew by an average of 0.4% of the working-age ] population over similar lengths of time. Consequently, ] there is what can be called a "missing labor force" of ] 2,808,000 workers who might otherwise be in the actual ] labor force but have either dropped out entirely or ] failed to enter the labor market because of the lack of ] jobs. If the unemployment rate in February 2004 took into ] account this missing labor force, the unemployment rate ] would have been 7.4%, or 1.8% greater than the official ] rate of 5.6% (see chart below). Here is someone publishing unemployment statistics which include the data about the contraction of the total labor force. |
The unemployment statistics the government doesn't want you to see... by PrimeNumbers at 2:51 pm EST, Mar 31, 2004 |
] The number of unemployed workers (currently 8.2 million) ] and the national unemployment rate of 5.6% in February ] 2004 do not adequately convey the true labor slack in the ] economy for several reasons. One major understatement is ] that the unemployment rate does not reflect the uniquely ] large 1.2% decline in labor force participation that has ] occurred since the current recession began in early 2001. ] This decline represents a stark contrast to the past ] three business cycles, when labor force participation ] actually grew by an average of 0.4% of the working-age ] population over similar lengths of time. Consequently, ] there is what can be called a "missing labor force" of ] 2,808,000 workers who might otherwise be in the actual ] labor force but have either dropped out entirely or ] failed to enter the labor market because of the lack of ] jobs. If the unemployment rate in February 2004 took into ] account this missing labor force, the unemployment rate ] would have been 7.4%, or 1.8% greater than the official ] rate of 5.6% (see chart below). I, thankfully, have a very specialized, and high-demand skill set, that is *not* dependent on the technology sector. But I've got a lot of very underemployed friends, and know a lot of people languishing in shitty jobs because there's nowhere to jump ship to. Ugh. This recession and "jobless recovery" blows. |
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