] The poll, taken Feb. 16-17, indicates that if the
] election were held today, Kerry would be chosen by 55% of
] likely voters, compared to 43% for Bush. In the last
] polling, Feb. 6-8, Bush held a 49-48 advantage.

Do people prefer the Dems right now simply because they've been seeing them a lot on Television, or is something sustainable going on here?

] The poll, taken Feb. 16-17, indicates that if the
] election were held today, Kerry would be chosen by 55% of
] likely voters, compared to 43% for Bush. In the last
] polling, Feb. 6-8, Bush held a 49-48 advantage.

Do people prefer the Dems right now simply because they've been seeing them a lot on Television, or is something sustainable going on here?

[ I think it's mostly a media induced bubble that causes the 12% difference, but i think it's realistic that Kerry is favored over Bush as of now. If you look at the approval ratings right now, the very best (for Bush) shows him with a 58/40 Approve/Disapprove... and that's ABC/WP's consistently higher approval numbers. The average i took over 11 polls puts the margin around 9%, with an average of 5% non-commitals. That means Bush is easily in crossover territory given the MOE's. Every one of those polls shows his numbers going DOWN too, so we could be seeing a majority disapproval before long (Zogby, admitedly the most left-leaning of the polls, shows 49/50 right now).

I realize polls can't be the be-all end-all, but i think the bubble is sustainable as long as dems are smart and hammer away on the most critical and indefensible things Bush (and his administration) has done, and quickly move past blustery non-issues. I think W is going to have a very hard time defending his economic stances, and that's where we need to press.

I especially can't wait to see a campaign ad with Bush's "I'm a uniter, not a divider!" line, followed by a few of the choicest examples of just how divided this nation is right now. We must demolish him. -k]