"If the surge had truly 'worked,' we would expect to see a steady increase in night-light output over time, as electrical infrastructure continued to be repaired and restored, with little discrimination across neighborhoods," said co-author Thomas Gillespie, an associate professor of geography at UCLA. "Instead, we found that the night-light signature diminished only in certain neighborhoods, and the pattern appears to be associated with ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing."

Mike the Usurper memed this study here but this UCLA press release has more information and a link to the actual study. This raises a number of questions that are likely to be promptly ignored.

UCLA study of satellite imagery casts doubt on surge's success in Baghdad / UCLA Newsroom

Ghosts I-IV is ranked the best selling MP3 album of 2008 on Amazon's MP3 store.

NIN wasn't always considered mainstream, but any way you slice it, a long, ambient industrial album like Ghosts I-IV is not pop music. Its amazing on a cultural level that this is the most popular MP3 album on Amazon. Is this really what people are listening to these days, or is this some sort of statistical anomaly?

Granted, *I* like this kind of stuff a lot. Ambient Industrial is probably my favorite musical genre. But I always figured I was the sort of jerk who was qualified to wear this t-shirt. I never thought an album I really liked would top Amazon's sales charts.

If an anomaly, is it due to the album's price? Its a bit cheaper and a lot longer than most of the MP3 albums on Amazon but its only cheaper by a few bucks. Are Amazon shoppers more likely to be into Nine Inch Nails? Some people are arguing that Nine Inch Nails fans are more likely to spend money on their band's work, rather than download it from a torrent, because they are a loyal fan base, but as a loyal NIN fan I bought my copy from NIN's website, rather than Amazon, when it was announced on their mailing list, so I'm not sure these sales reflect that core fan base.

If this isn't an anomaly, are people seeking out more ambient industrial music in general? Has there been a surge in interest in Square Pusher? Autechre? Logikal? Or is it Trent Reznor's fame that has put this album out in front? Are people snapping up this album not because its the sort of stuff they are really into but because they kind of like NIN and there just isn't anything better out there in 2008?

I have a deeper worry that I've been mulling over for a few months...

Does the popularity of this sort of music reflect a dark undercurrent in American culture at the dawn of a serious economic cataclysm? I recall feeling that the new Batman movie was, well, a bit too intense. It was, in fact, exactly the Batman movie that I always wanted them to make - serious and complicated, but suddenly it made me uncomfortable to find THAT movie as THE summer blockbuster... I looked around myself in the theater and I thought "they've gone too far... these people aren't supposed to be into this kind of stuff."

The counter culture is supposed to be dark, brooding, complicated, and intellectually obtuse. Normal people should be downloading Pop Tarts and watching Indiana Jones. When they turn to this kind of thing instead, in huge numbers, what does it mean? What makes for a cool anti-fashion on the fringes is positively disturbing when it goes mainstream. What are we becoming?

re NIN best selling cc-licensed music (Lessig Blog)

As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. The instant historical revisionism by Karl Rove in today’s WSJ — mythmaking writ large — contains an egregious combination of false statements, crucial omissions and misleading assertions.

As recently as 6 months ago this sort of self-delusion that has been the hallmark of Conservative thinking in the past years was extremely frustrating, because they were in power. Its been a constant pattern: telling themselves that Iraq had WMDs or that FISA doesn't constrain the power of the President or that the EFF is "in it for the money" or that the UN and the Geneva conventions are irrelevant or that Brown was doing a good job running FEMA... They do it by lying to themselves, over and over and over again until their believe their own bullshit and are comfortable with what they've done.

Believing your own bullshit has consequences. It had consequences in Iraq, it had consequences in New Orleans, it had consequences for our economy, and it will have consequences domestically and internationally when the civil liberties and Geneva conventions chickens come home to roost. Each step of the way people have been calling Conservatives out on their bullshit, and finally after 8 years enough people have finally caught on that the Republican party is no longer in control of the government. But they still haven't learned their lesson. They still haven't figured it out. They are still lying to themselves. They still don't take what they're doing seriously enough to face it honestly. And what scares me is that they are down, but they are not out. These people cannot be allowed back into power until they realize what was actually at the heart of their demise, and it sure as hell wasn't that they "weren't conservative enough" - another line of bullshit their pundits tell them.

We simply haven't seen enough of the Democrats in recent years to know to what extent they suffer from the same problem. The claim that there is no problem with social security was certainly troubling, as was their unwillingness to give the surge time to work before calling it a failure.

What this country needs more than anything is leaders who are not full of shit. Is that too much to ask?

Karl Rove’s Factually Challenged Housing Revisionism | The Big Picture

Andrew Sullivan has a different take on the electoral consequences of recent developments.

The “success” of the surge is less a vindication of the entire enterprise than an opportunity to get the hell out with less blowback than previously feared. Moreover, the less chaotic the situation in Iraq, the easier it is for the Democrats to persuade Americans that the relatively inexperienced Barack Obama is not that big a risk as commander-in-chief.

The more John McCain is right on Iraq, the more he loses | Andrew Sullivan - Times Online

Violence in all of Iraq is the lowest since March 2004. The two largest cities, Baghdad and Basra, are calmer than they have been for years. The third largest, Mosul, is in the midst of a major security operation. On Thursday, Iraqi forces swept unopposed through the southern city of Amara, which has been controlled by Shiite militias. There is a sense that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government has more political traction than any of its predecessors.

Radical policy shifts on Iraq seem less reasonable with each passing month. A number of previous threads on this subject are easy to search for. I think this is going to present a problem for Obama, as previous Dem positioning in Iraq is going to get squeezed against improving news from the ground. McCain will easily capitalize on this.

Big Gains for Iraq Security, but Questions Linger - NYTimes.com

"The message was clear, Tim Russert was too fat for too long and this promoted his premature heart disease," said Dr. Peter McCullough, consultant cardiologist and chief of the division of nutrition and preventive medicine at William Beaumont Hospital in Michigan. "Patients are getting the message that weight loss is fundamental to reducing [overall] risk."

ABC News: The Russert Effect: Docs Report Surge

The Bush administration said yesterday that it plans to start using the nation's most advanced spy technology for domestic purposes soon, rebuffing challenges by House Democrats over the idea's legal authority.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said his department will activate his department's new domestic satellite surveillance office in stages, starting as soon as possible with traditional scientific and homeland security activities -- such as tracking hurricane damage, monitoring climate change and creating terrain maps.

The NAO surge continues roughly as you'd expect ...

"I have had a firsthand experience with the trust-me theory of law from this administration," said Harman, citing the 2005 disclosure of the National Security Agency's domestic spying program, which included warrantless eavesdropping on calls and e-mails between people in the United States and overseas. "I won't make the same mistake. . . . I want to see the legal underpinnings for the whole program."

Thompson called DHS's release Thursday of the office's procedures and a civil liberties impact assessment "a good start." But, he said, "We still don't know whether the NAO will pass constitutional muster since no legal framework has been provided."

I think there is some reasonable debate here about whether people have no expectation of privacy in regard to things that are only visible from above. At the time the Constitution was written, certainly, a hedge afforded some privacy.

Administration Set to Use New Spy Program in US

noteworthy wrote:
With every passing day, Johnathan Rapley's conception of the New Middle Ages seems increasingly likely.

I don't follow how this comment relates to the context. Most of the news out of Iraq seems positive. Of course its complicated and fragile, but clearly this is progress. Worrying that too many refugees might return is a good problem to have.

I also don't understand George Packer's comment that these developments were "unanticipated by almost everyone on the American side of the looking glass." These are precisely the kinds of changes that were hoped for as a result of the surge.

I further don't understand why the Democrats are still calling for immediate withdrawl. Putting more troops in (in a calculated way) reduced the violence. As I've said before I think this is exactly what Kerry planned to do. The tactics change was clearly a product of the Democrat's electoral victory in 2006. The fact that there is a chance for peace should not vindicate the decision to launch this extremely bloody conflict in any way. All in all, this should be seen as a political ad tactical victory for the center left. Unfortunately, the left seems to have married itself too closely to over simplified prowar vs. antiwar rhetoric. The fact is that the situation is fragile and calls for immediate withdrawl are not rooted in a careful assessment of the situation.

There is a big problem though. Kucinich has been raising some interesting questions about the privatization of Iraq's oil. I don't have a good linkable reference, but I'll post one when I find it. He might actually have a point, but no one is listening, and unfortunately a discussion of what people are doing with oil also fits too easily into over simplified rhetoric and so the issue has a good chance of staying ignored.

RE: Must Read: Iraq Round-Up

This newspaper was not wowed by either man. The spin General Petraeus put on the military achievements of the surge exaggerated the gains. Mr Crocker's claim to see a spirit of sectarian reconciliation bubbling just beneath the surface of Iraq's stalemated politics was even less convincing. But on one point Mr Crocker was surely right. If America removes its forces while Iraq remains in its present condition, the Iraqi future is indeed likely to be disastrous. For that reason above any other, and despite misgivings about the possibility of even modest success any time soon, our own view is that America (and Britain) ought to stay in Iraq until conditions improve.

The Iraq war | Why they should stay | Economist.com

Congressman Brian Baird (D-3 Vancouver, Washington) hosted a town hall tonight at Fort Vancouver High School. It was Baird’s first appearance in front of his constituents since reversing his position on the war. ALTHOUGH he’s been an adamant critic of the war—he voted against the war and the surge—he announced last week that he thinks the surge is working and he wants to give it time.

He spoke in a high school auditorium that was packed with at least 500 people who were overwhelmingly vocal in their opposition to Baird’s new stance. There were also protesters outside calling for Baird to resign.

I also talked to several people as they left the auditorium and asked them if they found Baird—who was there to explain his new position—to be persuasive. To a person, everyone shook their head “no way,” including Doris Holmes, active member of the 18th district Democrats, who said, “He lied. He’s toeing the Bush party line. I can’t believe he’s a Democrat.”

You can follow links through to Baird's editorial if you wish. The bottom line is that this sort of thinking simply isn't allowed in the Democratic party. "I have committed even before setting pen to paper the essential crime that contains all others unto itself."

Rep. Baird Gets Blasted for Iraq war views